Monday, August 23, 2004

Good News for Kerry: Wlezien Predicts Bush Victory

Chris Wlezien, a political scientist based at Nuffield College at the University of Oxford in Britain, is predicting Bush will win 52.5 percent of the vote in a model that combines income growth with presidential approval ratings.

Four years ago, Wlezien forecast that then-Vice President Al Gore would win with
54.5 percent of the vote. In fact, he took 50.5 percent and lost the
state-by-state Electoral College vote after the Supreme Court settled a bitter
dispute over the outcome of the vote in Florida.

Certainly they factored in issues like the war. Or lying about the war. Or lying about the war that cost 12,000 civilians their lives.

Said senior economist Robert Dye of

"We do not consider any type of voter preference on foreign policy and we are
not accounting for noneconomic issues. To the extent they are more important,
they could make a difference."


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