NBC's Joey: How and when will it jump the shark?

NBC’s “Friends” spin-off, “Joey,” has yet to air and yet I’m already wondering how and when will it jump the shark? Some might argue the show will premiere post-shark since it's a show about two New Yorkers moving to California. (Wasn't that the Laverne and Shirley shark-jumping MO?) Not to mention they're taking the least liked, least funny Friend and will focus 23 minutes a week on the inane details of his ape-like existence (anyone remember when they spun off “Fish,” from “Barney Miller,” or recall “The Roepers,” laugh-fest?) I still see plenty of sharks in Joey’s future:

* Matt LeBlanc will unexpectedly move to Quebec in the third season and be replaced by a new Joey played by Emmanuel Lewis
* Joey will give birth to twins in the fourth season and not know who the real father is
* Joey will finally go through puberty in the final thirteenth season and put out a “musical” CD filled with “songs,” and other “entertainment.”
* In the fifth season, Joey will move to Massachusetts and marry Ted McGinley
* Joey will finally be broadcast in “living Technocolor” in year six